Internal-combustion Engine Industry Research Report: Downstream Multiple Positives Drive High-speed Industry Recovery

1. In the past decade, the high degree of boom in the downstream markets of automobiles, motorcycles, agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, and cargo vehicles has led to a rapid increase in the output of the internal combustion engine industry. China's internal combustion engine industry has developed rapidly, with an average compound annual growth rate of over 17%, which is higher than the GDP growth rate over the same period. The total power has reached 754 million KW, and China has become a global power producer. Profits doubled in 2002, 2003, and 2004. In recent years, the growth rate has slowed down, but it has remained at more than two digits.

2. In the second half of 2009, the output of internal combustion engines doubled, and in November exports also began to pick up. At the beginning of 2009, the government issued a number of policies to stimulate domestic demand, stimulate the economy, implement plans for the "rejuvenation of the automobile industry", "adjustment planning for the revitalization of equipment manufacturing", "planning for the revitalization of the shipbuilding industry", and implementation of the "three agricultures" policy for agricultural machinery and automobiles. , subsidies for motorcycle consumption, and expansion of investment in fixed assets, increased market sales of agricultural machinery, construction machinery, automobiles, motorcycles, and heavy-duty vehicles, indirectly driving the rapid growth of the assembly of internal combustion engines, the second half The output of the internal combustion engine recovered rapidly and the momentum of the well blowout accelerated. In November, it achieved a year-on-year growth rate of 166.8%.

3. Energy conservation, emission reduction and independent innovation are the main topics for the development of the internal combustion engine industry. In light of increasingly severe environmental and energy pressures, energy conservation and emission reduction have become China's basic national policy. A low-carbon economy is an inevitable choice for achieving sustainable development in the future. The internal combustion engine industry is not capable of independent innovation and lacks the overall core technology of the industry. In the field of commercial vehicle diesel engines in China, a leading development model based on me and integrated innovation has been formed. The multi-cylinder gasoline engine, especially the passenger car engine, is a high-tech field. Currently, domestic enterprises have no independent development capability.

4. Industry Investment Strategy: In the short term, it is expected that the internal combustion engine industry will continue the rapid growth in the second half of 2009. In the long run, China's internal combustion engine industry is a rising industry. China's internal combustion engine market has great potential for capacity growth, and there is still much room for reform and innovation of internal combustion engine technology. High-end products mainly rely on imports, and there is ample room for import substitution, which will provide powerful conditions for the future development of the industry. We give the "Recommendation A" rating for the internal combustion engine industry. The investment in listed companies in the internal combustion engine industry can be observed in four lines. The first is to focus on companies that are heavily influenced by the country's preferential policies. The second is to focus on the impact of national energy-saving plans and emission regulations. The third is the long-term focus on the development of passenger car diesel engines. Fourth, long-term concern has technological advantages, can develop its own brand of car engine companies.

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