Auto Market Inventory: Five Summary of China's Automobile Production and Sales in 2011

On Friday, Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, was not optimistic about sales growth in December, and said that China's auto sales will grow by 2%-3% for the full year.

This year's growth in automobile production and sales has led to great disappointments for car manufacturers with great expectations at the beginning of the year. The pre-judgment of the auto market next year is also setting the next year's auto production and sales plans as well as the scale of production. Unlike the high-profile expectations of auto makers in the same period of last year, in the last few days of December, few auto companies announced their 2012 production and sales targets. Dong Yang said that basically it can be seen that the annual growth rate of car sales will still be higher than 2%-3%, but he also said that the sales growth situation this month is not optimistic, because the comparison base last year was artificially high; Last December, car sales rose because the incentives for certain models (especially small-displacement vehicles) are about to expire.

For the prediction of the auto market next year, Dong Yang said that as the Chinese government relaxes its economic policy, car sales may rebound next year. It is expected that the sales of sport utility vehicle (SU V) will continue to grow rapidly in 2012. This is also based on the 1-11 months of this year, SU V is the fastest growing sales of passenger cars.

In addition to his own country, Dong Yang said he expects China will continue to expand its auto exports in 2012. According to data from the Automobile Industry Association, China exported a total of 74,600 vehicles in November, an increase of 52.43% over the same period of last year. From January to November, auto exports grew by more than 50%. In recent years, China’s auto exports have been accelerating, but the proportion of total production is still very small.

In fact, it is not optimistic to put it under the macroeconomic background. Recently, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Minister Miao Wei said that the industrial added value above designated size will increase by 13.9% year-on-year, and will increase by about 11% next year. The growth rate will show a year-on-year decline. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in 2010 was 15.7%. Miao said that in the face of the grim situation at home and abroad, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will vigorously promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries next year. Next year, mergers and reorganizations will be taken as the working point for breakthroughs throughout the year, and plans for the merger and reorganization of key industries such as steel, automobiles and cement will be introduced. Wait.

Five Summary of China's Automobile Production and Sales in 2011 No.1

Sales volume is expected to remain within 19 million units in 2011

According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to November, 16.7283 million vehicles and 161.815 million vehicles were sold and sold, an increase of 2.00% and 2.56% year-on-year. Among them, 13122.27 million passenger cars and 13.1036 million vehicles were sold and sold, an increase of 5.39% and 5.26% year-on-year; sales and sales of commercial vehicles were 3,605,600 and 3,712,200, a year-on-year decrease of 8.68% and 5.93% respectively.

Comments: Comparing sales data for October, the rapid growth of car sales in November is expected to continue until the end of the year. Even if the sales volume in December converges with that in November, it will remain around 1.65 million units, and sales in 2011 will be at least Breakthrough 18.46 million vehicles, but not as much as the sales of 18 million vehicles in 2010.

No.2

Reduced market share of self-owned brand passenger cars

According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November, the self-owned brand of passenger cars sold a total of 5.253 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, accounting for 42.15% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the market share dropped by 3.28 percentage points from the same period of last year.

Comments: In the overall sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters or less, the proportion of self-owned brand passenger cars is obviously greater than that of joint venture models. However, from January to November, sales of passenger cars with 1.6L or less increased by 4.68% year-on-year, but sales of self-owned passenger car brands decreased by 2.34% year-on-year, and market share decreased compared with the same period of last year, indicating that the market conditions of independent brands this year are The overall automotive industry is particularly severe. The formation of this situation does not rule out the impact of macroeconomic policies such as purchase tax concessions and the implementation of the New Energy Conservation Policy.

No.3

Japan's Decline in SAIC Chengda Winners

In January-November, SAIC GM Wuling, Shanghai GM and Shanghai Volkswagen ranked among the top three passenger car manufacturers with sales volume of over one million. FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Hyundai, Chery, Chongqing Chang'an, FAW Toyota and BYD also ranked top ten in terms of sales. Compared with the same period of last year, Dongfeng Nissan, Shanghai General Motors, FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, and Beijing Hyundai were all higher than the industry; SAIC-GM-Wuling and FAW-Toyota were slightly lower, while other companies showed a declining trend.

Comments: From the perspective of sales of the top ten car companies, the Japanese car companies have performed less well than in previous years, and only Dongfeng Nissan has been short-listed. This is of great relevance to the March earthquake in Japan. SAIC Motor has become the big winner this year, and the number of passenger cars that have sold more than one million passenger cars is SAIC Motor, and it has occupied the top three sales.

No.4

Compact family chair is still the mainstream of consumption

Among the passenger vehicles, the top ten brands of cars for January-November were: Excelle, Cruze, Jetta, Bora, Santana, Xiali, Sail, Yuet and Fox, with sales of 239,700, 223,400, and 203,700 respectively. There were 201,500 vehicles, 187,800 vehicles, 187,700 vehicles, 181,300 vehicles, 179,900 vehicles, 178,300 vehicles, and 172,300 vehicles. From January to November, the above-mentioned ten brands sold 1,952,700 vehicles, accounting for 21% of the total sales of cars.

Comments: In addition to the Korean model Yuedong and its own brand Xiali, the January-November saloon sales were dominated by European and American models. Only Shanghai General Motors had Excelle, Cruze, and Saiou. The market performance has made an indispensable contribution to its sales. Judging from the top ten cars, the compact family sedan is still the main consumer.

No.5

Imported cars grow twice as fast as domestic cars

According to the data released by China Import & Export Trading Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Import & Export"), from January to October this year, the Chinese market sold a total of 777,000 imported vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. The cumulative number of imported cars was 672,000, and the total volume of customs imports was 797,000, an increase of 29% year-on-year, far higher than the 9.4% growth rate of domestic passenger cars.

Comments: From the survey data, small-displacement models will be the development direction of imported cars. Previously, the cumulative share of the following 3.0L models has increased from 73.3% in 2009 to nearly 80% at present, and the following 2.0L models may become the main competition areas for imported cars. In terms of global automotive development, small-displacement, lightweighting, and energy-saving are trends, and this trend is no exception in the Chinese market.